The $500 Billion Man AKA 50 Trillion Cent! Our Government Rocks!

So I've been waiting most of the week to write something about what I'm about to discuss. It just makes me flat out angry at what is happening with governments and companies lying like they are. I'm giving the finance minister approval to wear the Dunce cap. And I'll be honest, I think I'd feel more comfortable with my very intelligent little niece in charge, after all she is able to count numbers and knows when things go missing- she is a very mature little girl. But not our government, counting numbers and projections is clearly too difficult.

Oh ya, since the game starts in a couple hours gooo Cavs!!! Hope they pull it off and take it to a game 7.

So this past week, all the headlines were that Canada will now be an estimated 500 Billion in deficit in the coming years. Does this make me upset? Somewhat. But what really does it to me is the constant lying that is going on. Last fall Jim Flaherty the finance minister was actually saying that the books are balanced and "I can assure you that we remain on track for a balanced budget this fiscal year with a modest surplus by the end of the fiscal year". All last year him and Harper were Harping (excuse the pun) about how Canada would be the first to come out of this recession and that there would be surpluses in the years ahead. Well now they are saying an estimated $500 Billion deficit in the years to come.

Now why would he say there was a surplus last year... oh yeah there was an election. So they need to lie to make sure that people are ignorant enough to vote for them. And I can hear the populace say that it is politics, it is poor politics and it is a disgrace.

And you are saying, Andrew why do I care? I can almost guarantee that at some point in the future they are going to be raising taxes on the already overtaxed Canadian population. Not only that, but these politicians have nobody's best interests in mind but their own and it is wrecking society whether you see what is happening or not. How do you solve a debt/credit problem??? Our government and that in the US do it by borrowing more credit/debt essentially using credit from the credit card to pay for the credit card. Once again, there are those in grade 6 that would say not such a great idea, but to each their own.

And what about the promise that Canada is coming out of the recession first??? Someone explain how this will be the case if the US is our biggest trading partner by far. And I understand that Canada has now taken a stake (own shares) in General Motors of Canada, what a horrible investment. So you are once again throwing good money at bad, investing is bad businesses now that will make things worst later. Please see my write up on what I think of GM by clicking here. And I can hear someone about to save but Andrew they are saving jobs. Yes, but what happens in a few years when once again things get worse because General Motors doesn't know how to run a business?? Lets face it, they can't compete with Toyota, VW because they don't make cars that people want and their business isn't doing well. So why does the government seek to keep them in business and save jobs today and cause Armageddon tomorrow?

But that is the way of our society isn't it.... it seems to be more about making sure things are working well for next week rather then worrying about the future. As long as I can make lots of money next week/month then lets deal with next year when it comes, until an accident happens of course.

I'm positive on the people in North America in general, you can feel the positive energy just reading my facebook, various other blogs and the general sentiment on the street. People have such a way of uniting when terrible things happen. I'm negative as heck about the government, bailouts, and businesses that are lying and seeking only self gratification.

To close out... in one of my other posts click here. I discussed why I am worried about the future in general, I said I don't know if it is going to be one year or three years but I think things get worst. So far I'm noticing that we are seeing rising prices ( gas is already over a $$), and remember that there are many people unemployed. And the one thing that is missing to solving this big mess.... THE CONSUMER. That is what runs the economy in North America, people need to spend and they aren't.

So while the media and such continue to spin all is well and the worst is past, I continue to see caution ahead. The governments proclaim the worst is past, real estate companies say that this is the best time to buy. What is the rush? where are we going? But does anyone really trust these people anymore or really care what they have to say? I certainly don't.

Will things get a lot better at some point? Certainly... and I REALLY HOPE THEY DO. But the measure that the government is taking will only make things worst and they are not out to help you are I and that is my big problem here.

Glad I let that out, now off to watch the game!

Really Freaky Nightmare...

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Ok here we go with another random topic....

So I'm used to having dreams, I have them all the time. Normally I'm flying in my dreams.... probably due to the fact that I watch far too much Heroes and Smallville, I'm a huge superheroe fan.

Anyways about a month ago... I'm sleeping or I think I am sideways on my bed and sideways on the pillow, and my hand is stretched out to the side of the bed. Anyways, I almost felt like I was drunk or that the entire world was blurry to me. My eyes are kind of open at this point and I see this dark character staring at me at the side of my bed, but I can't make out the character because all I can see is blurry and black. It was something scary and I don't remember the rest. I will admit this nightmare scared me the most of any nightmare I have ever had. Then I woke up, in the exact same position that I was in during my nightmare- for about 3 weeks I was looking around corners, and "concerned" about dark areas.

Now here is where it gets interesting, I'm on the golf course with my older brother 2 days after it happened and he had a nightmare the night after me. Saying he was being chased or something by some dark character that he couldn't make out. And he was freaked out. NOPE I didn't say a word about my dream before he said it, I kept quiet just to make sure.

Anyways thought I would share... it freaked me out. Speaking of horror, I can't wait to see the movie 'Drag me to Hell' at the end of the month. I should sleep really well after that one:)

What do you think about my nightmare???? Coincidence or was it a message?

Saturday early eve giggles...

Having a super/busy weekend thus far but thought I would share this picture before I head out again...a friend passed it along earlier this week.

Amusing!

The Small Things Still Matter...

Fall seven times, stand up eight. ~Japanese proverb
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For the past year and a half we have been batted over the head with doom and gloom and even the most positive people have become negative/critical at times (including myself-look at my blog posts) Rather then look at all of the bad things that have happened to yourself or other people, it would be more beneficial to try to see the good in people and the things around you. Most people are actually well intentioned, although they may do really stupid things… people generally mean well. I’ve put a lot of thought into this lately. There will always be those that try to bring us down and make things lousy within society but I’d say most people want to see the next person do well.

We are lucky to live in a society where we can do what we want and speak freely, not everyone enjoys these same values. At the end of the day it is our own decisions that determine our route in life and the best part of this is that we can always change/make new decisions about the things in our lives daily. Meaning that every day we live, we start with a fresh slate and if we didn’t like the decisions we made the day/week/month/year before we may not be able to reverse that decision but we can make new decisions and steer down a different path. Oh ya, and more good stuff… the mistakes we make we can learn from and make better decisions next time around.

Ultimately we are in control of our destiny- REGARDLESS of the external factors around us. We can’t control what the economy does, or what other people think or do to us, or whether or not we are going to be layed off tomorrow. We can however control what we do, how we think and that in itself can be a very powerful thing.

While we may not be the most important people in the world, we have as much ability to have a positive impact on those around us as the next. The small things that we do are the things that make people smile and appreciate us the most. While these things may not mean a great deal to us individually, they may mean the world to someone else… whether it be acting goofy just to make my niece laugh or a kind gesture to a stranger on the Subway- these are some of the things that really count to other people and make us stronger people.

Anyways, something to think about…

My trip to the Bay- yes that is Hudson's Bay.

So I thought I would throw in a brief mention about a trip I made to the Bay a few weeks ago, actually I've made quite a few trips in the past two months. The Bay is a really special place you see....

I had been looking for a pair of shoes- in particular they are Geox. They were full price everywhere I looked Feetfirst and Geox. So I said hey, you know what I'm going to go into the Bay... and besides that the shoes I wanted were advertised for 25% off at the Bay, so it said in the flyer I received. So I walked, no ran to the Bay one day after work getting really excited...I got there, looked around and picked up my pair of shoes. The sign said better then advertised 40% off, sure beats the 25% I was expecting. Then I looked around..hmm nobody there. I looked and walked around the shoe department for ohh about 10 minutes (the union workeds must have been on break). Then all the Sudden someone walked behind the counter marked "customer service". So I walk up and I'm like " I'd like to try a size 12 of these". He is like oh sorry sir thats not my department". I'm like "do you not work in the shoe department????". He replies " I do, but thats not my area." He then points someone out to me and said she him. At that point I was getting annoyed- I had been in there for 10-12 minutes with the shoe in my hand without the right size to try on.

So I saw the clerk, the other person asked me to speak to. I walk up and I'm like "I'd like a size 12 of these please". He says ok, give me 2 minutes. I sit down this time and wait. About 5 minutes goes by... and I am ticked off. I ask "are you getting the shoes still?". He says "actually someone else is, we keep the inventory on a different floor so it may be a few minutes". So I huff and puff and waited another 5 minutes and the shoes finally arrived. But the lady who went to pick up the shoes said ..."sorry we don't have a size 12, but I brought down a 10.5".

I swear to go I was going to scream......... all they had to do was bring me the shoes in my size and I would have purchased them-instead I received the runaround, bad customer service and was told that they didn't have my size. But Andrew this is a one off situation...oh no! I have no clue how the Bay is still in Business- who can afford to give customers discounts on anything but more then advertise.

I solved the problem by going to Feetfirst and paying full price and they practically ran to the back to get them. BOOM that's a sale.

I know I'm not the only one that has issues like this and is wondering how is the Bay still alive... probably not maybe the only one to vent them during my lunch hour though.
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The Dynamic of Relationships has really Changed

So I was randomly thinking this long weekend.... have things changed that much in society and in particular in regards to relationships. I've been looking around at the way people communicate and deal with relationships and believe me I'm no expert on this, just have been making general observations. Lets put it this way I'm a 29 year old bachelor....

My parents on the other hand.... by the time they were my age had a house (that they could buy at an affordable price, peanuts compared to now), had two kids (I wasn't on the planet quite yet), and they met at a street parade - Caribana. Now here is where it starts getting interesting... they didn't have cell phones, the Internet, email or the insane expectations that we have of ourselves today.

I've been finding that all of this technology/modern thinking has really changed the scope of relationships. Think about this, it is so easy to blow people off by text, messaging, email there is really no need for person to person communication. And some of the time it is possible that you misinterpret what the other person is saying b/c you don't know the tone or context they are texting/emailing it, so you get annoyed and just blow that person off anyways. It is almost like eliminating the emotion out of all of your communication- you surely don't need to meet to break up any longer.

And how about online dating you say??? Well you or the other person could be married, in a relationship, dating 20 people or be hiding several different things that would normally be deal breakers. and that is just the good stuff.

and then we get to the superficiality of it.... Thanks to a 20 year economic boom ... we have become accustomed to thinking we are entitled to everything. And the frame of mind is that I'm entitled to "this" and I don't need to give anything or put any effort out to get it. Regular dates have become high pressure/expectation situations. I don't know the stats but I wonder how much higher the divorce rate is now then it was in those times, it's sad.

Don't get me wrong here, I really believe there are good people out there but this ballgame has changed. Don't bring a sword to a machine gun fight. There are many people that are happy out there, and they are definitely lucky. There are many people out there that won't settle until they find happiness and then there are those that need to need to make sure they DON'T BRING CRAZY TO THE ASYLUM.

There is like some hidden code where nobody mentions this kind of stuff in public, but apparently I grew a set during the winter.

I must say the best part of being a bachelor... is being able to write about this kind of stuff and not caring what anyone thinks about it. Have a great week! http://wordonthestreetto.blogspot.com/

The Power of Positivity

The Power of Positivity

So I’m not going to lie 2008 was not the best year for me, on many different levels. I’m not going to go into specifics but I will just say that I learned some of the most important life lessons I have in perhaps my lifetime. I guess I’ll talk about a few of those – and I think the reason I’m posting this is because these lessons can be used on many different levels; socially, financially, workwise. These are some of the steps I have taken to make myself a stronger person, and believe it or not they are working.

1. Only surround yourself with positive people. Seems pretty obvious but you would really be surprised at the people that are in your life that don’t support or believe in you. These types of people only breed rays of negativity and never really have your best interests at heart. You will not know what it is to achieve until you surround yourself with positive people, maybe someone you admire, someone fun, someone smart. If you have negative people around you remove them, before they cause you to doubt yourself or hold you back from what you can truly attain.

2. Don’t stop learning. The minute you feel as though you are too good at whatever you are doing (maybe even too big for something) you subject yourself to complacency. Complacency is a way to stunt your growth- to me it essentially means that you are settling and content with your position in life. Once you settle, then you automatically fall back…. You don’t try to achieve more and as a result are more susceptible to failure. Think about this for a minute – how many famous people have gone broke….. why? Bad planning perhaps? Complacency- they thought the $$$ would always role in so they stopped working as hard. Keep working hard, don’t forget your goals and always try to learn more.

3. Mind, body and soul. I didn’t realize they actually had books and classes about this… but I thought to myself to be the best person I can be I need to focus on three separate criteria that embody all of your elements. Mind- we have covered this in #2- don’t stop learning, think positively. Body- Oddly enough there is something about working out, keeping in shape and staying active that allows you to look and feel better. Personally I find that when I work out regularly, I get some of my best ideas. Not only that but I feel refreshed, and am able to think freely. When you are stressed and not active, you make mental mistakes, bad decisions b/c your body cannot handle this type of climate. Remember you have to be in your body for a lifetime so don’t abuse it! Soul- this is a really important one. We all grew up in diverse environments and have different values then the next person. Don’t ever forget who are you are and what made you that way. It is also ok to be different, and don’t think that just because people don’t like you, don’t agree, or are flat out jealous of you that you should change for everyone. You are fine the way you are and it is important to stay true to yourself.

4. Trust yourself!

5. Don’t stop dreaming or creating. Regardless of how bad things have been and how much negativity is throwN your way. NEVER GIVE UP YOUR DREAMS. If you want something bad enough it can be achieved with hard work and a little luck. There will be many obstacles, one way streets, roadblocks and stop signs but never lose sight of what you ultimately want to achieve. There will be people who doubt you, or people who just don’t understand, those are the people that could never do what you are capable of – ignore. Also recognize that there are different stages of progression in life, some people mature slower then others.

6. Always do your own homework and be analytical. This one will perplex people, I have a huge problem with trust. I’m now really careful about who I trust, because I realize that when I pass along that power there is the possibility that I must be disappointed. But I think my point is that you should always be analytical because people by nature have their best interests at heart (look at the media- they lie to people most days playing on peoples emotions yet not really caring who they hurt). Read behind the lines.

7. Trust your instincts. I’m a strong believer in intuition. Usually when my mind tells me something I tend to listen. Not sure why it works like this but it just seems to and I trust it. 8. Discover your passions and go after them.

8. Discover your passions and go after them. I’ve found that only a few things give me pleasure beyond belief. I grew up being really athletic and played baseball basketball and track and instruments (piano and violin). I hardly do those things now, but golfing has become a bit of a passion. I enjoy it… perhaps because I’m not really good at it and I’m always looking for ways to improve- it is a challenge. I’m also passionate about the markets, and the arts. While I don’t do the type of stuff at work, that makes me go gaga I spend most of my free time following, reading and learning about the markets. I also love the arts, I did acting for a while and would love to get into it again one day- perhaps more creating then doing. I’ve got a lot to say and I feel that it is time to start voicing some of this stuff.

9. Get involved. This world is a big place and it is full of opportunity. This is one that I’m definitely still working on. I’m still working on getting involved and sharing my interests, knowledge with other people.

10. DON’T GIVE UP EVER! Enough said.

This isn't Monopoly money...stop the presses

Someone forgot to tell the world bankers that the money that they have been relentlessly printing for months on end, isn't monopoly money. Between the US, China and Canada I would say that we must easily be into the Trillion dollar figures in terms of bailouts now. This is scary.

The funny part is that the normal person thinks that the governments are doing the best thing for the economy, I disagree with this notion. They are spending billions of dollars to bail out companies like Citigroup, GM, Ford, Bank of America.....and many more. So essentially these the government is handing these companies money in order for them to reconstruct their business. How are they accomplishing this you ask? Taxpayer money. My main issue with this is that these companies failed because they had poor business models/bad management and instead of letting them go bankrupt the government is saying here is some taxpayer money try to fix it. But these same people are going to make the same errors down the road and likely make the problem worst. Cynical opinion, yes very but at least it is realistic. So here bad company, here is some money so you can blow it and we can press rewind and play in a few years!!!


The government is fleecing people... and people have been put to sleep- sing me a lullaby please. The fundamentals are improving (positive yes) but they are doing it strictly due to government intervention... this is not good. Markets/the economy don't bottom when government want them to.... they bottom when supply/demand is at an equilibrium point. If the economy was truly at a bottom I would expect to see it improve on its on accord rather then here is a trillion dollars now fix it.

The problem I see down the road... is inflation and nobody will say it or admit it of course. But when there are this many dollars floating around, it is a recipe for disaster. The government will have to start hiking rates later this year without a doubt. Does anyone Remember the 1980's? When the government had to hike mortgage rates throught the roof. I've read about it, and I spoke to my dad who said he was paying 18% on his mortgage. The price of goods went up as well. I see this happening in the future. Where the price of food rips higher, the price of everyday goods becomes so expensive that it becomes a burden on the average person.

Anyways maybe tomorrow I will talk about some positive stuff- actually I will for sure. Don't get me wrong I am happy to see the economy "recover", but history has shown that when the government does what it is doing right now it does not work out very well. In the meantime... someone please hit the button for the printing presses.

Thinking about the future keeps me up at night....

So the markets have just been rampaging lately.... and maybe i'm just a big worrywort but I've got to be honest, I don't think we are there yet. I don't think that this was "the bottom" and I'm not sure if it comes later this year or in a couple years but I have a really bad feeling about things. Let me explain my thoughts really simplistically

You need to ask yourself several questions... How many businesses have gone out of business/bankrupt? I say NOT MANY. So you are telling me that with all of this carnage and hoopla in the media there are that many companies with ugly balance sheets barely surviving? I thought a recession was supposed to filter out the weak companies, and have the strong companies replace these. That is not happening yet....

While this recession has hurt many people, have their spending habits changed that much....I'm not so sure about this either. I was reading that something like 85% of people surveyed believed that this would only be a mild recession. That worries me. People for the time being seem to be more concerned about missing out rather then protecting themselves- that isn't a wall of worry at all. It is a recipe for disaster...

Then there is the Slope of Hope... and I really like Obama. I took the day off just to watch inauguration and I live in Canada. But how can his popularity be at 70%..... I'll tell you how! People are looking for a saviour to come and rescue them from all of their problems, and Barack is the one that they chose. I think that people really believe that he can fix everything.... I don't think he can. I think he will be able to do some wonderful things socially for the US but I don't think he will be able to turn the economy into a sustained new bull market. Why do you ask? The market has been in a relentless bull market uptrend for the past 20 years or so....look at this chart... of the S&P for the last 80 years. Something has really changed here....or is JUST STARTING TOO.

In a few years I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P at 400 ish. Nobody believes that can happen.....and that is what scares me. Wealth and Prosperity has almost become like entitlement in North America. People believe they are entitled to it, and they expect the government to deliver it.

Imagine what would happen if Barack managed to make people believe there was a recovery coming (and at some point there will be one, just not sustained I don't think) and it actually
became worst. I think there would be civil unrest on a large scale... if you look at other instances in history this has been the case. And human behaviour I have learned doesn't not change.

Like I said maybe I'm just worrying too much..... but I don't think stocks are cheap and I certainly don't think real estate is cheap (remember I'm in Canada). And I don't hear people saying that they never want to buy another stock again. Thus I think True Capitulation in in the future......... maybe 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, who knows. In the meantime there will be lots of opportunity but use caution...

Psychology/emotions in the market

So I'm reading this great book "Inside the investors Brain" by Richard L Peterson... and it discussed a lot of what has been happening for the past year in the markets. By that I am speaking about emotions and psychology towards the markets. Peoples emotions are really swinging the pendulum known as stock prices well beyond rationality- on the way down and on the way up. It is herd like behaviour.

I remember my ex-gf asked me to help her with a project Her finance teacher said that markets are rational, she disagreed and wrote a paper. She submitted a paper saying that they were irrational and supported it, she got an OK grade but her teacher grilled her. The point here is that markets are anything but rational, they are run on a constanst cycle of fear and greed. Two months ago nobody wanted to buy an equity b/c the world was ending, today nobody wants to be left behind and the markets are now up about 40%ish in a straight line.

I suspect that at some we will see fear again as people are now becoming complacent. Trading in these environments is very difficult I find b/c prices go far beyond what you expect in both directions. Support and resistance become irrelevant.

Above is the a chart of the VIX.... we were at 90 two months ago and we are at 30 today. Fear has decreased insanely in two months-I'm thinking we get some mean reversion at some point which means lower prices. Books that discuss psychology, sentiment and emotion are very worth reading.... the other that is good is Manias, Panics and Crashes.

Government Motors/GM - Verdict = The government/big business think that we’re stupid.

Verdict = The government/big business think we’re stupid.

For the past several months I’ve pretty much sat in disbelief at some of the stuff the government/ big business have been doing. It is like they think that we are clueless. What they are doing is pretty much thievery at worst and corrupt at best. In the lastest round of nonsense, I heard that the government of Ontario is taking a 2% stake in Chrysler. I reread it cause I thought they only did this stupidness in the US. Nope I got it correct, the government is now in the business of owning/running businesses. They can hardly run the province efficiently and here they go trying to help.

Why am I so opposed to this you ask???? Chrysler and GM have a long history of LOSING MONEY. They have not be profitable in years and years. Why aren’t they profitable? Because they aren’t very good at running their businesses and no offence to anyone that owes one of these puppies…. They aren’t the most attractive cars in the world. All the cars seem to all look like a box. Volkswagen, Honda, Toyota won’t go out of business/ or bankrupt because they make products that are in demand within society. GM/Chrysler are not in touch with the times and as a result nobody (not many) wants to buy their vehicles.

Lastly what will the government bailouts/investments do for these companies….It will buy them time, oh ya and it will save those jobs. I turned on the TV this AM and the CEO of Chrysler was squawking about how if their company went out of bizness then 38000K jobs would be at risk. So essentially the government is providing these companies money to stay open/preserve jobs. So are they betting that in 5 years GM/Chrysler will start making products people want/ and start making money? Cause this just seems like a BAD INVESTMENT. And the people of our generation are being fleeced- this makes me quite upset.

I was reading that 90% of people think this is a mild recession. Newsflash the way we are going we will have to deal with a worst situation in 2,3,4 years because companies like GM/Chrysler will be having even worst problems. This is a temporary bandaid and not a fix and it will only serve to make things worst down the road.

My solution??? Let the bad companies fail and let the good companies replace those… that is the way an efficient/growing economy works. Will it be painful??? Yes it will but it will provide the basis for a strong recovery. The route we are going now will provide a slight recovery but in a few years I have a feeling that todays problems will look like child’s play. I hope I’m wrong!!!!